[extropy-chat] Cold Fusion Survey

[Robin Hanson]

On 2/12/2007, I asked:
>Please, disputants and interested observers, offer (publicly or
>privately) estimates or bounds for these four probabilities:
>1A. The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, as
>opposed to misleading experimental technique.
>2A.  The probability that CF excess heat is a real phenomena, and
>indicates fundamental new physics, as opposed to a new chemistry
>detail, such as a unexpected molecular structure.
>1B.  The threshold probability for 1A that would justify further
>research into CF.
>2B.  The threshold probability for 2A that would justify further
>research into CF.

For those wanting a scorecard, here is a summary, including my estimate

       John Clark Chris Hibbert Ben Goertzel Eugen 
Leitl               R. Hanson
1A  5E-11          <5%             [.7 , .9]            so bad we 
can't tell   15%
2A 5E-11          negligible     >.9 * [.7 , .9]   we don't know            2%
1B  1E-(1E10) 5%                .01                  no 
answer                  10%
2B  1E-(1E10)   >negligible  0                      no 
answer                  1%

The range of estimates is disturbingly wide.


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  <http://hanson.gmu.edu>http://hanson.gmu.edu
Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323