[extropy-chat] Tomb of Jesus?

Gina Miller nanogirl at halcyon.com
Wed Feb 28 02:48:57 UTC 2007

I think the figure was generated from the odds of all those names being buried together. 

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky 
  To: ExI chat list 
  Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2007 5:00 PM
  Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Tomb of Jesus?

  Gina Miller wrote:
  > Yes the names are common, and when asked about this, the response from 
  > the director of the movie (on the CNN channel) was that statisticians 
  > were given the data, and when you add a person who is born to a father 
  > with a specific name, the number drops, when you add a brother, it drops 
  > even further, when you add a mother, it is not so common, resulting in 
  > the statistics of 600 to 1 that this would the family. That's not too 
  > shabby, considering that in current day DNA testing, if your number is 1 
  > in 200 they consider you related.

  Dollars to donuts that 600 to 1 figure is a likelihood, not a posterior. 
    So if there were more than 600 tombs out there, you go figure.

  Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
  Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
  extropy-chat mailing list
  extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
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