[extropy-chat] Tomb of Jesus?
nanogirl at halcyon.com
Wed Feb 28 02:48:57 UTC 2007
I think the figure was generated from the odds of all those names being buried together.
----- Original Message -----
From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
To: ExI chat list
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2007 5:00 PM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Tomb of Jesus?
Gina Miller wrote:
> Yes the names are common, and when asked about this, the response from
> the director of the movie (on the CNN channel) was that statisticians
> were given the data, and when you add a person who is born to a father
> with a specific name, the number drops, when you add a brother, it drops
> even further, when you add a mother, it is not so common, resulting in
> the statistics of 600 to 1 that this would the family. That's not too
> shabby, considering that in current day DNA testing, if your number is 1
> in 200 they consider you related.
Dollars to donuts that 600 to 1 figure is a likelihood, not a posterior.
So if there were more than 600 tombs out there, you go figure.
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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