[extropy-chat] what is probability?

gts gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Thu Jan 18 14:39:46 UTC 2007

On Wed, 17 Jan 2007 23:13:14 -0500, The Avantguardian  
<avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:

> Yes, I agree. It's like asking, "What is the batting
> average of a baseball player that has never been at
> bat before?" A frequentist would say, "He doesn't have
> one yet." A Bayesian would say, ".500". Within their
> respective philosophies, both are correct.

Not a bad analogy, assuming your Bayesian is relying on the PI and not  
making use of real statistics to set his priors.

I think the Bayesian's position here is very weak, philosophically.

"Please tell me, Captain," says Spock as he raises his eyebrow, "by what  
kind of illogical magic can someone obtain a batting average without  
actually going to bat?"


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