[extropy-chat] META: Re: what is probability?

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Thu Jan 18 16:28:58 UTC 2007

This thread has run into diminishing returns, I think.
Time to wrap it up.

On Thu, Jan 18, 2007 at 09:39:46AM -0500, gts wrote:
> On Wed, 17 Jan 2007 23:13:14 -0500, The Avantguardian  
> <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> > Yes, I agree. It's like asking, "What is the batting
> > average of a baseball player that has never been at
> > bat before?" A frequentist would say, "He doesn't have
> > one yet." A Bayesian would say, ".500". Within their
> > respective philosophies, both are correct.
> Not a bad analogy, assuming your Bayesian is relying on the PI and not  
> making use of real statistics to set his priors.
> I think the Bayesian's position here is very weak, philosophically.
> "Please tell me, Captain," says Spock as he raises his eyebrow, "by what  
> kind of illogical magic can someone obtain a batting average without  
> actually going to bat?"

Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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