[extropy-chat] what is probability

frank McElligott frankmac at ripco.com
Fri Jan 19 01:43:56 UTC 2007

This weekend the Colts of Indianapolis play the Pats  of New England to advance to the Superbowl. The last two times they have played each other the Colts have won. The previous four games before these last two victories the colts had lost to New England.

In the last six games therefore the Pats have won 2/3 of the time.

The quarterback of the Pat's Tom Brady is 12 victories and one defeat in his last 13 games. 
As their leader he has won the game  for them at a rate of over 90%.

Yet, All the smart money(gamblers) are betting the Colts to win the game and to win it by over 3 points. It is one thing to discuss probability, but to bet real money that's another.

Who is the correct bet, the smart money or the Bayesian idea that the number says Brady wins the big games.

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