[extropy-chat] Coin Flip Paradox

Jef Allbright jef at jefallbright.net
Tue Jan 30 02:02:56 UTC 2007

Mike Dougherty wrote:

> I have come to appreciate "gts" as a tag representing
> an almost religious dogma on a subject I don't seem
> to care enough about to fully understand.  I kept trying
> for a while, but eventually gave up.  Once in a while I
> scan for new bits, but keywords like "frequentist" and
> quotations of other people's ideas usually has me
> scrolling to the next thought. 

> to gts's point, if you (we/whatever) are not interested,
> just don't post.  If one is at a party and there is a niche
> conversation in one part of the room, it's not difficult
> to become involved in another. 

ON the contrary, I think the subject of probability is very interesting and relevant to the extropy list.  It's about how we make certain decisions under uncertain circumstances, with the other side of the coin being the understanding that a deterministic but uncertain world is a world of great and unknowable promise.  There is great beauty in principles such as the Principle of Indifference and of course, Bayes Theorem, and there is great practical value in an understanding of probability as a stepping stone to greater rationality.

You responded as if Gordon's retort reflected the concerns I expressed.  Suggest you reread my post.

- Jef

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