[ExI] Will the Singularity take an unexpected path?

John K Clark jonkc at att.net
Sat Sep 15 15:07:30 UTC 2007

"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" <sentience at pobox.com>

> if the Singularity refers to a form of ignorance

It does.

> you should not, in the same sentence,
> treat it as a future event.

Nonsense, scientists do it all the time. We can accurately predict the path
of comet X for the next 318 years 4 months 19 days 7 hours and 
22 minutes, but then it will pass very close to Jupiter and after that we 
have no idea what the comet's orbit will be. The reason is that at that
particular point a very very small error in the knowledge of the comet's
position and velocity will lead to a huge error in its future orbit.

In the case of the comet we at least have a good knowledge of
gravitational dynamics theory; in the case of the Singularity we don't 
even have a basic understand the fundamental forces creating it worth
a damn, much less precise knowledge of the initial conditions the world
will be in when it enters that singular point.

 John K Clark

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