[ExI] Global Temperatures to Decrease
lcorbin at rawbw.com
Thu Apr 17 15:56:26 UTC 2008
(See entire text below.) Since you'll see 50 stories a week
about "the increase", here are a few facts from the nature
* Global temperatures for 2008 will be slightly cooler than last year.
* Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average
surface temperature has risen by 0.74C.
* This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally
since 1998 when El Nino warmed the world.
Putting those three facts together paints a different picture
from what we usually hear, doesn't it?
Global temperatures 'to decrease'
By Roger Harrabin BBC News environment analyst
Global temperatures for 2008 will be slightly cooler than last year as a result of the cold La Nina current in the Pacific, UN
meteorologists have said.
The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue
into the summer.
But this year's temperatures would still be way above the average - and we would soon exceed the record year of 1998 because of
global warming induced by greenhouse gases.
The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global
average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C.
While Nasa, the US space agency, cites 2005 as the warmest year, the UK's Hadley Centre lists it as second to 1998.
Researchers say the uncertainty in the observed value for any particular year is larger than these small temperature differences.
What matters, they say, is the long-term upward trend.
LA NINA KEY FACTS La Nina 2008 Forecast (Source: UK Met Office Hadley Centre) La Nina translates from the Spanish as "The Child
Girl" Refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Increased sea temperatures on the western side of the
Pacific mean the atmosphere has more energy and frequency of heavy rain and thunderstorms is increased Typically lasts for up to 12
months and generally less damaging event than the stronger El Nino
La Nina and El Nino are two great natural Pacific currents whose effects are so huge they resonate round the world.
El Nino warms the planet when it happens; La Nina cools it. This year, the Pacific is in the grip of a powerful La Nina.
It has contributed to torrential rains in Australia and to some of the coldest temperatures in memory in snow-bound parts of China.
Mr Jarraud told the BBC that the effect was likely to continue into the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a
This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998 when El Nino warmed the world.
A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to
greenhouse gases than predicted.
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