[ExI] FW: elections again (with new analysis)

[The Avantguardian]

--- spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> 
> > Subject: Re: [ExI] FW: elections again (with new analysis)
> > 
> > At 07:56 PM 1/17/2008 -0800, spike wrote:
> > 
> > >people talk left and
> > >vote right in order to not appear racist.
> > 
> > Seems the obvious explanation to me.
> > 
> > Damien Broderick
> 
> 
> I find it more convincing than a rigged voting machine.  Still
> inadequately
> explains the anomaly between hand counts and machine counts, but
> explains
> the exit poll anomaly.  If that theory is right, we will see evidence
> soon.
> 
> Does anyone know if any states have secret exit polls?

To be statistically valid, a survey sample must be random. If it is
supposed to be random, why would it not then be anonymous? This isn't a
longitudinal study so there would be no expected follow up the way
there would be in some medical study. I would be surprised if names for
an exit poll are even taken but even if they were, why would the
respondants assume that the pollsters would think they were racist for
not choosing Obama when Obama was one of five candidates?

Why wouldn't the pollsters instead think that the respondent was sexist
for not voting for Clinton? Wouldn't a guilty conscious rationalize the
decision that was made rather than simply lying about it? Why would
somebody, who felt guilty enough about having voted for Hillary instead
of Obama to lie to a pollster, bother to take the survey in the first
place? They are voluntary and I just don't see professional pollsters
twisting anybody's arm.

To put it another way, why would contribution of an unknown number of
closet racists on the left significantly outnumber the unknown number
of closet sexists on the left? Furthermore why would they assume that
the media pollsters who are being paid to be there were rabidly liberal
enough to think that not voting for Obama could only be motivated by
racism?

And finally for the million dollar question, why would our closet
racists all live in districts with voting machines?  



Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu

"Life is the sum of all your choices."  
Albert Camus


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