[ExI] Supercomputer oil slick sims predict greasy Atlantic
Tomasz Rola
rtomek at ceti.pl
Thu Aug 5 22:35:29 UTC 2010
On Wed, 4 Aug 2010, Tomasz Rola wrote:
>
> This is not new news, but rather a month old one:
Oh, this was to be months old, not month.
> [ http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/06/07/ncar_oil_slick_sim/ ]
>
> Note: the simulations had been done with ink, not oil. To check for oil
> they would have to change the code, I think.
On the other hand, as oil disperses into zilions of droplets (which is
going to happen, as everybody happily states), it will behave much more
like dye, viscosity-wise. But there is still a question about how sea
water would carry on such droplets compared to ink particles. And besides,
oil could be in full spectrum of different states of dissolution, so this
complicates computations a lot (it is not just oil - no oil).
Anyway, it could be interesting to compare future reality to this sim - I
wonder if there will be much talk about it. US gov agencies seem to be
rather optimistic, while some scientists are not:
"MacDonald also pointed out that NOAA officials denied the existence of
underwater plumes of oil for weeks, until a university research vessel
discovered them 75 miles from the spill site. Now, NOAA officials say that
49 percent of the oil has been dispersed into the water."
[ http://news.discovery.com/earth/oil-spill-estimates-report.html ]
Ian MacDonald is professor at Florida State University:
[
http://directory.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/search/searchList.cgi?searchStr=macdonald+&searchBy=lastname&submit=Search
]
[ http://www.gulfbase.org/person/view.php?uid=imacdonald ]
One such underwater plume:
"On May 15, researchers from the National Institute for Undersea Science
and Technology,[81] aboard the research vessel RV Pelican, identified oil
plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico,[82] including one as
large as 10 miles (16 km) long, 3 miles (4.8 km) wide and 300 feet (91 m)
thick in spots."
[
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill#Underwater_oil_plumes
]
Quite interesting, I think. Rather interesting than scary, however.
Regards,
Tomasz Rola
--
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