[ExI] alternative gambling game, plus epsilon

[Gregory Jones]

--- On Wed, 6/30/10, Adrian Tymes <wingcat at pacbell.net> wrote:
 
>...Ah - that's the problem.  This would presumably be presented as an
open, honest, and fair *gambling* system, yes?
 
Ja, but of course the term gambling need not be used, or even lotto for that matter, even though it resembles a lotto in some ways.  I would only insist that it be perfectly out in the open *exactly* what is being done.  It is a little like playing roulette without the wheel: everyone puts their bets down on the board in the dark, then the lights are turned on and the dealer pays off the number with the fewest chips on it.  It is gambling in a sense, that one is betting on guessing the least popular number.
 
It is a paradox.  In the 50,000-limited 1100 game, it appears to be that one has a 1 in 1000 chance of winning, but it is an illusion.  One actually has about a 1 in 1600 chance of winning.  If fewer than 50000 tickets are sold, the chances of winning actually decline.  If for instance less than 1000 people play, no one has any chance of winning, for at least one of the numbers must be unplayed.
 
Even if all the rules of the game are clearly stated and well known, I speculate that proles will *still* play the game. 
 
>... (Likewise, the last
winning number would likely be something to avoid, for the reason
you stated.)

Ja, but of course if the others followed this line of reasoning, then a fewer than average number of players would choose the last winning number, which would increase its probability of being the least-chosen, and thus become a repeat winner.  But if other players followed this line of meta-reasoning, they might intentionally buy that number, reducing its chances of becoming a repeat winner.
 
{8^D
 
I love it.
 
This is such a cool paradox, it must have been discovered before now.  Anyone have a reference to this somewhere?
 
spike

 


 
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