[ExI] alternative gambling game, plus epsilon

[Gregory Jones]

--- On Wed, 6/30/10, Gregory Jones <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
 
>>... (Likewise, the last
winning number would likely be something to avoid, for the reason
you stated.)... Adrian
 
Ja, but of course if the others followed this line of reasoning, then a fewer than average number of players would choose the last winning number, which would increase its probability of being the least-chosen, and thus become a repeat winner.  But if other players followed this line of meta-reasoning, they might intentionally buy that number, reducing its chances of becoming a repeat winner...spike
 
 
If even 40% of the players followed the lightning-never-strikes-twice philosophy, then one's chances of winning are increased to about 29% by buying last round's winner.  However, if even a half of a percent of the players do the same calculus I just did, they compensate for the others and the chances of winning with that number drop to below nominal.   {8-]
 
spike
 
 
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