[ExI] gaming reports

Gregory Jones spike66 at att.net
Mon Jul 5 15:30:51 UTC 2010



--- On Mon, 7/5/10, Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com> wrote:
 
 
 
2010/7/1 Gregory Jones <spike66 at att.net>
> Like the 1100 game discussed previously, the world of gambling is full of illusions.  Profits are driven by the gambling public's misunderstanding of actual processes.

Why would that be the case? A definite percentage of players stand up
with fuller pockets than they sat with. Even though you are betting
against statistics, some of such bets are by definition won. And you
only care about being amongst those happy some, not about the general
results of the gambling community.

--
Stefano Vaj

 
Certainly, no argument there.  In your example, nearly half of the players walk away with more money than they had to start.
 
The illusion is in the probability of being in that winner's circle.  The 1100 game is a good example.  The game is limited to 50,000 players per round, you pick a number between 0 and 999, and the winners are those who chose the least popular number.  The unsophisticated may estimate their chances of winning at about 1 in 1100 or so, but in fact the chances are more like 1 in 1600.  There are not so many people who know how to calculate those odds closed form, perhaps 10%?  Then maybe half who can write an accurate sim?  That leaves 40% of the proles who will play and play and play, with a prayer and blind illusion of hope.
 
spike
 
 

 
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