[ExI] The ultimate test of your transhumanist convictions...
ross.evans11 at gmail.com
Thu Jun 24 22:58:49 UTC 2010
On Thu, Jun 24, 2010 at 11:30 PM, Damien Sullivan
<phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu>wrote:
> On Thu, Jun 24, 2010 at 10:44:54PM +0100, Ross Evans wrote:
> > Productive deployment of capital now will always beat passive
> > investment for the future. Pensions plans are the only way a person on
> > average income can ever hope to accumulate a fund big enough to
> > provide a meaningful retirement income. These plans basically involve
> > playing the stock market, and as such their performance cannot be
> One person's 'playing' the stock market is another's productive
> deployment of capital -- the productiveness of which generally can't be
> guaranteed. The reality is that people on average incomes cannot
> afford to set aside a sufficient amount of capital for a retirement
> plan that does not resort to casino capitalism to make returns. The
But a plan, like a mutual fund, can spread the risk across a large
> population and longer time. A guaranteed-benefit plan also can also
> take advantage of averages: a risk-averse individual planning for
> retirement via her own accounts needs to worry about living to be 95,
> which is inefficient if everyone does it, but a plan can target for the
> average life expectancy.
But it's targeting a target that is moving upwards, and could well do so
dramatically in the next decade or so
> > whole pension system is predicated upon actuarial assumptions that no
> > longer hold true; it was never envisaged that people would live 20+
> I think you're confusing things. I'm sure private plans price their
> premiums with the latest actuarial data. Public plans are less flexible
> in their benefits, but conversely more flexible in their funding.
And almost universally burdened with enormous funding blackholes.
> Also, while life past retirement has increased, so has productivity.
> Plans aren't all that bankrupt, despite propaganda. As for Europe, some
> countries have retirement at 60; there's a flaw here, but it's not with
> the basic idea of pensions.
> -xx- Damien X-)
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