[ExI] Best case, was Hard Takeoff

[spike]

... On Behalf Of Brent Allsop
...

>And of course, reality well eventually converts everyone, or falsifies the
wrong camps...Brent Allsop


Ja, I have a good example where I and others were way wrong, but saw the
light over time.  Eliezer was sixteen years old at the time, and told me I
was off base.  He was right.  I thought nanotech would precede the
singularity.  More specifically, the kinds of computing technology enabled
by nanotech would enable the singularity.  Now I am convinced he was right,
that faster computers alone wouldn't do it.  Furthermore, in the past 15
years, I have become convinced that humans will not master nanotech, that a
>H silicon based intelligence would be required to do much with it.

This is the kind of stuff we used to argue about in the mid 90s.  In
retrospect it surprises me we were so uncertain that recently on this topic.
I blew that one.

spike