[ExI] Best case, was Hard Takeoff

[John Grigg]

Spike wrote:
I thought nanotech would precede the
singularity.  More specifically, the kinds of computing technology enabled
by nanotech would enable the singularity.  Now I am convinced he was right,
that faster computers alone wouldn't do it.  Furthermore, in the past 15
years, I have become convinced that humans will not master nanotech, that a
>H silicon based intelligence would be required to do much with it.
>>>


It will slow down the "fullblown Singularity" TM (yes, I'm
trademarking the term  ; )  ), if we have to wait for our AGI to
perfect mature nanotech, which may be very key to it creating a
post-scarcity economy, that includes indefinite lifespan for everyone!

I preferred the old scenario of "ten minutes after an AGI comes into
being, it becomes a billion times smarter than any human, and fifteen
minutes after that, it has transformed everyone and everything, to
live in a near utopian society, or else killed us all!"  I remember
this as essentially being Eliezer's classic scenario back then.  Do I
recall it incorrectly?

Fullblown Grigg Singularity (TM) -  A term regarding a type of
Singularity scenario, where a benevolent AGI develops mature nanotech,
to bring forth both a post-scarcity society and also indefinite
lifespan for all of humanity.

John  : )


On 11/28/10, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> ... On Behalf Of Brent Allsop
> ...
>
>>And of course, reality well eventually converts everyone, or falsifies the
> wrong camps...Brent Allsop
>
>
> Ja, I have a good example where I and others were way wrong, but saw the
> light over time.  Eliezer was sixteen years old at the time, and told me I
> was off base.  He was right.  I thought nanotech would precede the
> singularity.  More specifically, the kinds of computing technology enabled
> by nanotech would enable the singularity.  Now I am convinced he was right,
> that faster computers alone wouldn't do it.  Furthermore, in the past 15
> years, I have become convinced that humans will not master nanotech, that a
>>H silicon based intelligence would be required to do much with it.
>
> This is the kind of stuff we used to argue about in the mid 90s.  In
> retrospect it surprises me we were so uncertain that recently on this topic.
> I blew that one.
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
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