[ExI] Best case, was Hard Takeoff

[spike]

...On Behalf Of John Grigg
Subject: Re: [ExI] Best case, was Hard Takeoff

Spike wrote:
>>I thought nanotech would precede the Singularity...in the past 15 years, I
have become convinced that humans will not master nanotech, that a
>H silicon based intelligence would be required to do much with it.
>>

...

>I preferred the old scenario of "ten minutes after an AGI comes into being,
it becomes a billion times smarter than any human, and fifteen minutes after
that, it has >transformed everyone and everything, to live in a near utopian
society, or else killed us all!"  I remember this as essentially being
Eliezer's classic scenario back then.  Do I recall >it incorrectly?  John  :
)


Johnny you are one who was around in those days.  Ja, that is pretty much
how I remember it too.  I didn't take the notion of a singularity nearly as
seriously in those days, thinking more about nanotech.  Now it is a decade
and a half later, and I have seen little if any real progress towards a
replicating nano-assembler.  This is actually a good thing, for without some
kind of very capable control mechanism, it would be too easy for it to get
loose and gray goo the planet.

spike