[ExI] Natasha's Response re: Libertarianism, Extropiansim &Transhumanism

[BillK]

2011/6/23 Max More wrote:
> You seem to hold the mistaken belief that Extropian ideals involve believing
> in or seeking a Singularity. That's not the case and never has been. Some
> self-identified extropians expect a Singularity, but many of us do not. I've
> argued that a Singularity is unlikely several times in both talks and
> essays. For instance:
> http://strategicphilosophy.blogspot.com/2009/06/how-fast-will-future-arrive-how-will.html
>
>


Your classification of possible future paths is very useful for
discussing the options available.

As I watch what appears to be the ongoing collapse of the world
economy, your level 2 seems to be becoming more likely. "Hard Return -
Reversal". I doubt if I would class that path as 'Authoritarian'
though. More like 'Inevitable' - options running out. The jaws are
closing between resources running out (oil, coal, gas, etc.) and both
the increasing world population and the increased resource consumption
as the Third World develops First World expectations.

An optimist might hope for the development of alternative energy
sources and a voluntary reduction in world population / reduction in
world energy consumption. But time seems to be rapidly running out.
The problem is not only the development of alternative energy sources,
but the rapid deployment throughout the world in sufficient capacity
to maintain present lifestyles and aspirations.

As the Duke of Wellington said at the Battle of Waterloo,
"It has been a damned nice thing — the nearest run thing you ever saw
in your life".
using the word nice in an older sense of "uncertain, delicately
balanced". Nowadays we would say 'It has been a damn close-run thing'.


BillK