[ExI] The End of the Future

[Dan]

On Monday, October 3, 2011 2:20 PM Adrian Tymes atymes at gmail.com wrote:
> I had exactly the opposite reaction.  It struck me as a lot of bawwing
> and nothing on how to actually fix the problem.
>
> Analysis and introspection about the current situation, are only
> useful insofar as they point their way to solutions.  Analysis about
> how terrible everything is, conducted only for its own sake (and/or
> the emotional release from affirming that nothing oneself can do
> matters), is a form of masturbation.  Specifically, it is called
> "disasterbation".

I haven't yet finished reading the piece, but your comment remnds me of something Caplan wrote in his _The Myth of the Rational Voter_. It was specifically about pessimistic bias:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Myth_of_the_Rational_Voter#Pessimistic_bias

I bring this up because things might not be as bleak as many are making them out to be. Recall just a few years ago, in the US, some were forecasting 10USD a gallon for gas. Well, gas prices fell. Granted, that's not a knockdown argument against pessimistic bias, but it should call into question some of the gloom and doom predictions that seem to, zombielike, rise up again and again. (Reminds me of a quip someone once said about a certain group of naysayers having predicted nine of last one famines.)

Regards,

Dan
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