[ExI] The End of the Future

[spike]

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Dan
Sent: Monday, October 03, 2011 12:51 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] The End of the Future

 

On Monday, October 3, 2011 2:20 PM Adrian Tymes atymes at gmail.com wrote:
> I had exactly the opposite reaction.  It struck me as a lot of bawwing

> and nothing on how to actually fix the problem.
>
> Analysis and introspection about the current situation, are only

> useful insofar as they point their way to solutions.  Analysis about

> how terrible everything is, conducted only for its own sake (and/or

> the emotional release from affirming that nothing oneself can do

> matters), is a form of masturbation.  Specifically, it is called

> "disasterbation".  Adrian

 

 

I had a different take on it, with an upbeat ending.  Consider when you were
in high school or college (this thought experiment works better if that has
been tragically long ago.)  Now think of all the developments you
anticipated by 2011, and compare to what happened.  We had in mind all the
Jetsons stuff, the video phones, flying cars, supersonic commercial flight,
orbiting space stations, Mars colonies, advanced urban infrastructure,
defeat of crime and all that.  But if we had made a list of anticipated
developments at that time, we would universally have missed one huge
important development, which by itself more than compensates for everything
that didn't happen: computers and internet.  We wouldn't trade that
development for all the flying cars and video phones in the world.  The
internet/fast computers have allowed each of us to develop and grow in way
we just didn't imagine 30 yrs ago.

 

When I read Thiel's commentary, something that struck me is his contention
that the development of computers/internet in some ways masked the
retrograde development in other areas.  So people who never use
computers/internet may actually perceive they are falling back, which they
are in so many important ways.  But if you collect all the people who are
very pleased with how technology has advanced in our lifetimes, it will be
those who use computers and internet all the time, and use it effectively.
These people are us.

 

So while we rejoice in the development of all these things, keep in mind
that this kind of development might be a one-time event.  The next thirty
years might not be as much fun as was the last thirty, for computer geeks.
Or something new and as completely unforeseen as the internet might come
along and make the next 30 even more fun.  Let's watch, shall we?

 

spike

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20111003/bcceeea9/attachment.html>