[ExI] The silent PV revolution

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Sun Apr 8 15:49:51 UTC 2012

On Sun, Apr 08, 2012 at 05:16:42PM +0200, Mirco Romanato wrote:

> > Are you actually saying that renewables are a scam, to milk the
> > gullible?
> I think so.
> A very large chunk of the renewables are simply a scam of the rich,
> connected, informed against the poor, unconnected and uninformed.

So you think we don't need renewables? That peak fossil does
not happen in reality? It's an interesting theory. Do you have evidence
for your theory?

> Every one pushing for an investment needing subsides to return a profit
> is, effectively, pushing for a scam. And scam have a bitter end, like a
> bust, default, bankrupt declaration.

Well, we now have grid parity in California. I would call that as
a resounding success of when governmental interventions work --
by bootstrapping a market.
> The rest of the chit chat is only a distraction.
> I want see how the German economy will fare when they will close down
> their nuclear power (not only talk about it). I want see how many jobs

You don't sound informed. Please do look at the numbers. Both in
Germany, and in Japan.

> will flee to some saner place (like Poland). I want see how you will be

The renewable programm is a resounding success, job-wise.

> able to keep the heavy industry going without nuclear energy. Maybe with
> coal?

Again, youre confabulating something. Go get the numbers. They'll tell
you the real story.
> Your solar cell industry is bust, legally dead. The brains are leaving
> for China or somewhere else.

I'm not sure what drugs you're on.

> It is not profitable and it never was. And it was unable to compete
> against asian low cost jobs and more efficient resources allocation.

Are you objecting that we're getting really cheap PV from Asia?
That sounds kinda anti-competition. 

> I want to see how much the PV incentives will stay, without a national
> industry to receive the benefit of this policy and advocating for it.

The FITs are being slashed (the latest numbers I'm hearing are up to 70%,
not sure what the final verdict will be) because that mere 4% of PV destroys the
profits of utilities, since effectively removing peak where the profit
is. PV doesn't favor monopolies, it's a real end-user owned energy source.

That's not a bug, it's a feature. Grid parity in Germany is only a few more
years away, at which point the only way (save of lobbying for solar tax or
demand tax-backed guaranteed quotas for utilities) how the utilities can cope 
is by raising prices, which will of course make renewable look even better.

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