[ExI] eroei forward for kennedy, p.e.

spike spike66 at att.net
Mon Dec 24 00:27:43 UTC 2012



From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Dan
Sent: Sunday, December 23, 2012 3:51 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] eroei forward for kennedy, p.e.


On Sunday, December 23, 2012 3:15 PM Jeff Davis <jrd1415 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>. It's all a load of politicized baloney being exploited by the
> aforementioned scaremongers (and others) for the benefit of
> their own bottom line.

>.I don't believe every last person pushing the doom and gloom line here has
a pecuniary interest or that merely money grabbing motivates them. .Dan


Or another case: money grabbing motives them (as it does me) but not in this
particular case.  Money grabbing always motivates me, I love the stuff.
Money is good, the more the better.  I will grab any that is grabbable.


However, in this particular case, what I am really doing is imagining a long
term future in the event that the singularity doesn't occur, that there is a
still-unknown reason why it cannot, in the form in which it has commonly
been envisioned.  This is a possibility, do think it over.  Then what if all
our thorium plants and so forth never come to fruition, by completely
foreseeable reasons: they are crushed dead by political forces which turn
out to be greater obstacles than technical ones.


Then, over the long haul, oil reserves will dwindle, even if we drill baby
drill.  Eventually that wonderful resource does decline, even with
optimistic assumptions.  The oil shale lasts a long time, but not forever.
Even for those of us who do not believe CO2 is a primary driver in global
warming, we acknowledge that it is a contributor, and that eventually global
warming is actually a bad thing, even if not at first.  Oil shale dumps
enormous amounts of CO2 for the amount of energy it extracts and delivers.
Space based solar might work out, but it might not.


After all that is taken into account, ground-based solar for all its
shortcomings and expense looks to me like a long term major contributor.
Wind powered biomass to liquid fuels will be a big contributor.  Finding
some alternate means of converting biomass to food will be a huge
contributor.  Reducing the absurd level of energy waste looks to me like the
greatest contributor.  All these solutions are scalable and require little
if any government intervention.





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