[ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Mon Apr 1 12:49:12 UTC 2013

On Sun, Mar 31, 2013 at 10:55:54PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 11:40 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> > Look, I'm no enjoying any of this in the slightest.
> > I need good news. Can you give me any?
> ### We could exchange links to completely opposing views all day long
> and still waste each other's time.

I need something peer-reviewed, or at least containing hard data,
and not opinions, which are rather useless, unless I know the
reputation of the opinion holder for doing due diligence.
> Based on my reading of diverse sources of information I developed a
> conviction that primary problems in energy production are vanishingly
> unlikely to cause massive human die-offs in any foreseeable span of

A low probability of a large-outcome event would at least require
doing due diligence. It seems that only 50 kPeople world wide are
doing their due diligence. That is a remarkably low number.

> time. By primary I mean caused by depletion of fossil or nuclear
> resources, not by various social disturbances secondarily impacting
> the ability to generate energy, such as environmentalist hysterias,
> madness of crowds, wars and a surfeit of stupidity. Primary energy

The problem is that many people will consider this a "merely"
economic problem. Even after the fact there will be a failure
to allocate the blame accurately.

> problems are not even likely to significantly impact population growth
> in the next few hundred years.

If the net energy graphs are accurate you should see a very
significant impact by 2020, and a giant impact 2030.

I really hope that these graphs are not accurate. I do, I do.

> Just take this as Bayesian data, and let's call it a day.

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