[ExI] [mta] Re: Bitcion Moore's Law?

Thu Jul 4 16:01:48 UTC 2013

Hi Carl and Gordon,

Hmm.  I completely agree with all this - that "currencies are 
representations of value", and that they "only grow in relation to the 
underlying productivity of their economies".  But that is the point.  If 
the underlying economy is growing exponentually, similare to Moore's 
Law, then since Bitcions are limited in quantity, they must 
comparatively grow in value to adequately handle the usage growth in 
demand in any exponentially growing economy?

Gordon said he "has difficulty believing there is a Moore's Law for 
Bitcoins".  So where is the disconnect, if the underlying economy, and 
demand, in the long term is growing exponentially?

As you can see in this historical graph of Bitcoin valuation growth: 
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2. It has so far followed more of a 
Moore's law than almost anything else.  So how much more of this kind of 
Moore's Law Growth will be required before you'll jump camps and admit 
that there is a Moore's Law like growth in value of Bitcoins?  In other 
words, what kind of evidence will falsify your beliefs?  Obviously, if 
there is a deviation in this so far very linear (on a logarithmic graph) 
growth pattern, this will falsify my predictions.  So, again, if you 
think there will be a deviation from this kind of very linear growth, 
what do you think this deviation would most likely be?  More growth?  
Less growth?  Any random growth that is just not Moore's Law like linear 
growth which we've seen so far? What, exactly, are you 
saying/predicting, and where do we disagree, if we indeed do disagree?

Brent Allsop

On 7/4/2013 2:18 AM, Carl Youngblood wrote:
> I agree with Gordon. Currencies are representations of value, not 
> actual resources. Markets are ways of exchanging value, and they only 
> grow in relation to the underlying productivity of their economies.
>
>
> On Thu, Jul 4, 2013 at 3:41 AM, Brent Allsop 
> <brent.allsop at canonizer.com <mailto:brent.allsop at canonizer.com>> wrote:
>
>
>     Hi Gordon,
>
>     Interesting that you have such a different POV.
>
>     So then given your best guess, what would you say is the most
>     likely value of Bitcion one year from now.  More or less than the
>     predicted 100% increase?  I figure we should be in very much
>     agreement on this, even if we do disagree on the "Moore's law"ness
>     of such predictions? Why is it that everyone misses and ignores
>     the important things people agree on, yet focus on much less
>     important disagreements?
>
>     I also have troubles understanding how you can say that "currency
>     and commodity markets don't work that way".
>
>     It seems to me, the value of Gold is exactly the result of two
>     "moores laws" playing against each other.  Number one, the
>     deemand, which is increasing exponentually, paralelling the growth
>     of humanity and the economy.  And second, the growth of Gold
>     supply has been more or less growing exponentially, for all
>     history, especially when the price gets high like it has been. 
>     There is an old popular adage that an ounce of Gold has always
>     been equal to the value of a good Man's suit.  The only reason
>     this has been true, for centuries, is because of these two mores
>     law like behaviors have been so closely matched.  You'll probably
>     point out that an ounce of Gold can, today, pay for many men's
>     suits.  And I"ll just fire back that the price is way ahead of
>     itself, and precisely why it is dramatically crashing in value,
>     and will continue, likely tell it get's back to the price of a
>     man's suit.  And of course, now, Gold has a Big competitor, so my
>     prediction is that it could even drop further, because of this.
>
>     I will agree with you that fiat currency, controlled by any
>     central resurve, does not behave according to any Moore's law,
>     precisely because the central authority intervenes to keep a
>     fairly constant inflation.  But I don't see how you can think that
>     Bitcion, and it's restricted supply nature, isn't any different
>     than any such fiat currency!?
>
>     It seems to me, you're just focusing on the short term 'commodity'
>     prices and such.   I completely agree with you that there is no
>     "moore's law" with any of that. But I don't care about any of
>     that, and nobody can predict any of that.  What I like to get a
>     hold of, are the long term exponential trends and laws that will
>     always, in the long run, drastically overwhelm all such temporary
>     roller coaster noise.
>
>     Brent
>
>
>     On 6/23/2013 11:04 PM, Gordon wrote:
>>     Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com>
>>     <mailto:brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:
>>
>>     > The new version of the "Canonized Law of the Crypto Coin" camp
>>     > predicting future values of Bitcion just went live.
>>
>>     > http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
>>
>>     >It's predicting a continued Moore's Law like 100% / year growth...
>>
>>     I have difficulty believing there is anything like a Moore's Law
>>     for Bitcoin. Currency and commodity markets don't work that way,
>>     and I don't see why Bitcoin should be different.
>>
>>     Gordon
>
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