[ExI] predictable futures - was cyprus banks

[Andrew Mckee]

On Tue, 19 Mar 2013 21:56:55 +1200, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 07:14:30PM +1200, Andrew Mckee wrote:

>> Why does it make a difference?
>
> Because predictions have to be falsifyable.

Not sure I follow you, are you suggesting that Mr Vinges prediction is falsifiable and Mr Kurzweils is not?


> http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/WER2.html
>
> "Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me be more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.)
> Now in 2003, I still think this time range statement is reasonable."
>
> A decade later, less than 17 years remains from that
> point. Wonder whether his assessment hasn't changed
> meanwhile.

It would be interesting to know since a lot has changed in nearly two decades, maybe he could be persuaded to write an update some time.

Still regardless of when or if the Singularity happens, I sure hope there is plenty of plan B activity going on that someday soonish enables us all to get to see that big shiny beautiful future.