[ExI] predictable futures - was cyprus banks

[Eugen Leitl]

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 11:19:08PM +1200, Andrew Mckee wrote:
> On Tue, 19 Mar 2013 21:56:55 +1200, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>
>> On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 07:14:30PM +1200, Andrew Mckee wrote:
>
>>> Why does it make a difference?
>>
>> Because predictions have to be falsifyable.
>
> Not sure I follow you, are you suggesting that Mr Vinges prediction is falsifiable and Mr Kurzweils is not?

No, any prediction needs to have a milestone track
and a fixed interval, to validate or falsify the prediction.

Vinge's is easier to falsify or validate, given that
it is scheduled to happen sooner.