[ExI] kepler study says 8.8e9 earthlike planets

[Adrian Tymes]

On Tue, Nov 5, 2013 at 4:35 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> I share in the puzzlement.
>
[snip]

> Say we assign only 1% chance to
>

That's the source of your confusion: the illusion of convenient numbers.
The actual percentages are probably unwieldy small fractions of a single
percent.  Nature doesn't care that we decimalize things.

Consider the exact fraction you would need, for Earth to be the only one.
The reason it feels wrong is because it's an inconvenient fraction.
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