[ExI] kepler study says 8.8e9 earthlike planets

[Anders Sandberg]

On 06/11/2013 02:17, spike wrote:
>
>
> OK so this makes me think it is very possible that there is something 
> very fundamentally wrong with both models.  In the first case, we 
> explain the silence everywhere by recognizing the probability of what 
> happened here must be on the order of 1E-20.  That compels me to just 
> say something must be wrong with it.  Anders suggested the Great 
> Filter model is more likely, but even then, it just feels to me (ja, I 
> recognize the universe doesn't care how I feel) that occasionally some 
> detectible signal would leak past the Great Filter.
>

Note that crazy coincidence is also a Great Filter argument, it just 
claims that the probability of a habitable planet times the probability 
of life times the probability of intelligence is super-small.

But yes, something important is still missing.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University

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