[ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Fri Oct 11 09:27:45 UTC 2013


On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 11:09:48PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> Eugen wrote:
> 
> >> Believe all you want, I'm done. Let's talk again in 20 years.
> 
> ### Uh, finally!
> 
> This EROEI stuff has been really talked to death hereabouts, it's like
> the identity thread.
> 
> Also, concentrating on it detracts from our ability to think about the
> real challenges of our society, such as loss of economic feedback

Thermodynamics trumps economics. I tend to focus on thermodynamics
vs. ecology because it's both a short-term large-scale problem
and also a benchmark. It's useless trying to explain
generic overshoot if you can't explain the one facet of it:
the energy limitations. It's simple problem, we have lots of 
empirical data, yet that benchmark already indicates a failure.

The majority of peakers at this point have given up on the
whole Cassandra business, and focus on bringing their own house in
order. These people are obviously far smarter than me. 

> loops, potentially dangerous social inhomogeneities, the coming robot

These are secondary and tertiary problems. These are alleviated
or at least delayed if your nail your primary dysfunctions.

> apocalypse, etc. Not that one could do something about them anyway but

The robot apocalypse is a long-term problem, and will not be at
all a problem if we lose the ability to maintain nevermind advance
technology necessary for autonomous automation.

> at least we would go down arguing about stuff that matters. Plus,
> there is a good chance that increased return on capital achieved
> through AI and a well-managed transition to the robot society will
> allow us to muddle through and maybe even flourish. So maybe it will
> be all good, in 20 years.

If we continue on this course, for the majority of the world
population 2030 would suck immensely more than 2013. Whether
this directly translates to where you sit then is another 
matter. Wealth and location can insulate, for a while. 



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