[ExI] Death follows European contact (Mirco Romanato)

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Tue Apr 22 18:40:29 UTC 2014

On Tue, Apr 22, 2014 at 6:58 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Effect size? Causality testing? The theory is nice, but one needs to check
> for how much is explained by the lead hypothesis.
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935107000503?np=y
> gives some data, and it definitely looks like something is going on - but
> lead is just a small (<20% of variance) part of the decline. What evidence
> does Gesch have to claim it explains 90%?
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412012000566?np=y
> has a claim that *sounds* as strong (but the 90% is the model as a whole),
> but inside the model lead is still just one factor.

Just one factor that is found in *all* the different states and
countries worldwide that removed lead from petrol. Agreed there are
other factors causing criminal violence, but when two graph lines
follow each other so closely, it has to be a very significant factor.
When different countries have completely different social policies and
cultures you have to look for a common factor that could cause the
reduction in criminal violence.

The UN and WHO have no doubts about the benefits of removing lead from petrol.

27 October 2011 - Ridding the world of leaded petrol, with the United
Nations leading the effort in developing countries, has resulted in
$2.4 trillion in annual benefits, 1.2 million fewer premature deaths,
higher overall intelligence and 58 million fewer crimes, according to
a new study released today.

I think it would be virtually impossible to find an alternative
hypothesis that you could apply worldwide to all countries and
cultures at 20 years after removing lead from petrol. Especially as
different countries removed petrol at different times.

You don't always need complex sociological reasons for criminal violence.


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