[ExI] Death follows European contact (Mirco Romanato)

[rex]

Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> [2014-04-22 11:00]:
>    BillK <pharos at gmail.com> , 21/4/2014 10:46 AM:
> 
>>      The BBC has an article up showing that in recent years removing lead
>>      from petrol leads 20 years later to a big reduction in violent crime.
>>      Prison and social policies make no difference - it's a medical
>>      problem.
> 
>    Effect size? Causality testing? The theory is nice, but one needs to check
>    for how much is explained by the lead hypothesis.
>    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935107000503?np=y
>    gives some data, and it definitely looks like something is going on - but
>    lead is just a small (<20% of variance) part of the decline. What evidence
>    does Gesch have to claim it explains 90%?
>    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412012000566?np=y
>    has a claim that *sounds* as strong (but the 90% is the model as a whole),
>    but inside the model lead is still just one factor.
>    No doubt neurotoxicity is a relevant problem and might contribute to
>    violence (and indirectly, via lower IQs, to a more shortsighted society).
>    But one should not start to assume it is the major explanation for a
>    complex social activity like violence just because it would be neat,
>    exculpate a lot of people and a model claims it is the explanation.
>    Extraordinary claims (the social stuff does not matter for this social
>    outcome) require extraordinary evidence. 

+1

-rex
-- 
As she lay there dozing beside me, a voice inside my head kept saying
"Relax... you're not the first doctor who's ever slept with one of his
patients," but another voice kept reminding me, "Howard, you're a
veterinarian."