[ExI] voting

[SR Ballard]

On Mon, Jun 12, 2017 at 12:29 PM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> This biggest problem I see with that [public key encryption] is that it's not secret ballot: the
> election office can see who voted for whom.
>
> -Dave


Having worked in politics, I can tell you that people really do tend
to vote party line, especially in bigger races, and are more likely to
swing in smaller races. Registered political parties are a good
indicator of big ticket votes.

Potential swing voters are identified by demographic statistics. For
example, young (18-29) single, never-married women, who are head of
household, and are registered Republican are the most targeted by the
Democratic Party as potential swing voters. People will often tell you
their previous voting history, leading to a reasonable assumption of
future voting activity.

And I'm not sure how many of you know this, but people often call
their local party office and specifically ASK who to vote for. If
you've never experienced that shocking moment, I suggest you
experience it. It's very depressing.

Also, people will plaster their cars and social media with mention of
candidates that they will not, or will definitely vote for. Big data
can draw from a remarkable number of sources and identify fairly
reliably who people will vote for, often more accurately than people's
initial thoughts. So even if we did have a truly secret ballot, which
there really isn't, there are other ways to use data to determine
fairly accurately who someone voted for.

Statistically speaking, a Republican was likely to win the election,
as America tends to flip parties for the presidential race. There are
obvious exceptions, Bush Sr. for example.