[ExI] what did we learn?

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sat Oct 31 19:53:39 UTC 2020




 >.Ja it is a grim time: the data is making it clear enough we are going
into a third wave and it is likely to be a bad one, damn.  spike on




>.This might as well be on the other list.  


Agree.  I see no reason why this can't go on the main ExI list either.  We
are all in this together.



>.Anyway - some experts predicted an autumn surge.  Do you know on what
basis they did?  You are following this more than anyone, or at least more
than most.  Ideas?    bill w  on extropolis




Most epidemiologists predicted a big covid resurgence as soon as it turns
frosty and people head back indoors.  The regular flu and the other virus
stuff always goes way up in October and November.  We saw the virus sloshing
around in South America this past July and August, so we knew those models
were disturbingly prescient, oy vey.


We know there is apparently conflicting data, but what overall signals
appear to be rock solid, now that we are 9 months into the epidemic?  I can
suggest a few of the most obvious ones, the big no-brainers: 


*	population density matters:  higher is bad
*	covid travels more indoors than it does outdoors
*	vitamin D deficiency plays into vulnerability somehow
*	we aren't at or even near herd immunity
*	survivability rates have gone way up and we don't know why
*	testing is very unreliable and inconsistent
*	masks probably help but we don't really know how much
*	social distancing is still probably our best defense
*	borders don't stop the virus



Any others?  What concepts do we now pretty much universally accept
regarding covid?  


OK which ones are speculative but you think are probably true?  Mine:


*	one is quite unlikely to catch outdoors from an infected person
*	students generally suffer from not being present on campus
*	students can still learn online, but the performance gap widens
*	sunshine somehow helps the immune system resist covid
*	businesses must stay open even if at reduced capacity
*	gatherings might or might not be super-spreaders, we don't know why




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