[extropy-chat] Harv's Explanation for Slow Progress

[Brett Paatsch]

Emlyn O'regan wrote:

> > Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> > 
> > > Hal Finney wrote,
> > > > Harvey writes:
> > > > 
> > > > > Why no singularity 10 years after somebody predicted
> > > > >  it on this list? 
> > > > 
> > > > I question whether anyone on this list made those 
> > > > predictions. Who predicted the Singularity by 2003?  I 
> > > > remember Eliezer saying 2008, and Dan Clemmensen is 
> > > > apparently sticking to 2006.
> > > 
> > > Unless you are seriously arguing for the singularity within the 
> > > next 2 or 5  years, you are not refuting my point.
> > 
> > If anybody wants to put money on the singularity occuring in
> > the next 5 years I'll be happy to discuss the terms of a bet
> > to the contrary.  Just spell out the determining conditions 
> > so that they can be determined by an impartial third party. 
> > 
> > Regards,
> > Brett
> 
> Who's going to bet on the singularity occuring at any given date?
> Either it doesn't happen, and you lose, or it does happen,
> and the bet is irrelevant. Drawing on a post of Eliezer's in the
> last day or two, it's like betting on the end of the world.

Somebody practical enough to make an impartially verifiable 
prediction based on real judgement and who thinks the singularity
does not means the end of the world.  Do you know anyone like
that?  

Regards,
Brett