[extropy-chat] Inheritance

[The Avantguardian]

--- Brent Neal <brentn at freeshell.org> wrote:

> Without trying to nitpick too much, let me point out
> here that your unsupported assertion of an "unfair
> advantage" doesn't seem to bear out. First, it seems
> like your use of the term 'unfair' is the result of
> a value judgement, not an unbiased, rational
> criterion.  The statistics we've already seen about
> the longevity of family wealth is a powerful data
> point arguing against their being some 'unfair'
> advantage.

Actually, I have seen the error of my ways. Literally.
My analysis of the coin flip game that I talked about
was wrong. I could not where a similar problem was
treated by googling. But then, I came across a neat
Java applet that can simulate, the very game I was
speaking of. It turns out that if Player A and Player
B start out with A and B amounts of wealth
respectively, and they bet even money on flips of a
coin playing until one or the other is broke, the
probablity that A will win is simply A/(A+B). So there
is an advantage to starting with more money, but the
advantage scales linearly and not exponentially like
it did in my purely mathematical analysis.

     So all that being said, I hereby fully and
completely retract my proposal to cap inheritance. It
was based on faulty math that my own experiments
disproved... which goes to show you why I am a
scientist and not a mathematician. ;) Sorry for the
inconvenience.

P.S. The sim is really interesting and educational.
The problem being addressed is called "the Gambler's
Ruin". Check it out at:

http://www.math.ucsd.edu/~anistat/gamblers_ruin.html


 

The Avantguardian 
is 
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu

"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us." 
-Bill Watterson

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