[extropy-chat] IQ vs Uploads (was: what to do)

[Robin Hanson]

At 02:16 AM 6/13/2005, Avantguardian wrote:
> > What most needs analysis are changes that are not
> > captured in existing trends. IQ has been increasing
> > and that has had effects for a long time.
> > So all of the existing trend-based analysis already
> > captures a big similar effect.  The effects of the
> > upload transition are not, however, much captured in
> > existing trends.
>
>This is a facinating topic. Why don't you analyze and
>compare the Flynn Effect with Moore's Law? I don't
>know about the shape of Flynn's I.Q. curve vs. time
>but if it is exponential rather than linear then it
>opens up a very cool possibility. Since Moore's law is
>exponential then it might come down to a race between
>the Flynn effect vs. Moore's Law to see who/what will
>dominate in years ahead: A.I. or the minds that CREATE
>them.

We don't know what processing/memory increase corresponds
to a given number of IQ points increase.  But it is hard
to believe that a factor of two every two years in CPU/mem
doesn't beat a standard deviation per generation of IQ.



Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323