[extropy-chat] Futures Past--time-line
giorgio gaviraghi
giogavir at yahoo.it
Mon Oct 10 18:00:09 UTC 2005
here is a 2004 forecast made for an incoming book for
the records
1-MAPPING THE FUTURE
Before analysing the progressive approach we want to
show where the possible road of achievements will
direct us by single subjects.
Such results will be included in a Master Plan and
analysed in detail in the following pages
This preview is used as an advanced description of
the method that will be followed and will help clarify
the division in successive steps for all activities.
We can define the phases, following Kardashev
classifications of energy compsumption , they are.
-Phase 1- a planetary type society
-Phase 2-an interplanetary type society
-Phase 3 an interstellar type society
While the drivers are:
-political, as the major and initial condition for
other developments
-standardization a technical condition for unification
-security another condition for the general well being
-pollution, an effect of uncontrolled progress
-energy a requirement to be fulfilled in a way that
don’t create pollution or waste of resources
-education a cause to avoid poverty
-health to save and enhance our body
-economy to eliminate poverty and promote well being
-space as our future unlimited territory
-technology as the main source of controlled progress
-terraforming the main direction of our Earth oriented
plans
They will be analysed with most of their evolutionary
progress and cause and effect situations in a
progressive step by step sequence spanning over three
centuries of future history.
Such mapping will allow to study the interrelations
between several drivers and to create scenarios that
may help prevent and solve future problems before
they can cause any damage.
In this way the future will become a planned event of
sequences and the progressive steps well planned
milestones and events towards the meeting of well
defined and established goals.
avir
MAPPING THE FUTURE
KARDASHEV 1- Planetary society
KARDASHEV 2- interplanetary society
Year 2020
year 2050
year 2100
POLITICAL
Prepare Master plan
operating World federation New
constitution including new lifeforms
GPA operating
Regional Governments system and
space settlements
Embryo World Gov system
World Constitution
STANDARDIZATION
Common e-currency all
standards unified
solar system standards
Start common language
standardization laws
Set unified standards
SECURITY
Unmanned military vehicles sat
crime control
crime prevention brain technology
Chip system operating
security by robots
Crime mapping
Robots\police\soldiers
Universal ID system
Sat personal tracking
POLLUTION
Prepare alternative technologies apply
new technologies climate
control
Pollution stopped
pollution reversed
catastrophy prevention system
SPACE
Low cost access technology cycler
to Moon and Mars advanced
technology transportation
Asteroid deflection technology manned
base in Moon and Mars manned
settlements
Station construction technology space
transportation system migration
asteroid spaceship
Solar system mapping
space infrastructural system
milky way mapping
1000 esoplanets discovered 100%
solar system mapping Mars
terraforming
earth like planets discovery
unmanned colonies
EDUCATION
Animation media
instruction implants
biobrain education
Remote education
universal brain
All media online
Games technology in education
ECONOMICAL\WORK
Population and jobs relocation
robotic economy
New economic model
Create new 1B jobs by K1 plan
ENERGY
Energy from renewable
wireless power transmission space
clean power generation
Alternative propulsion cars
-decentralise clean energy production
HEALTH
Medical injected chip
remote medicine
cell transplant
Human cloning
artificial organs
rejuvenation process
Extrawomb birth experiments
disease free society
suspended animation
Remote instant diagnosis
genetic engineered intellianimals
virtual immortality
Nanolevel therapy
Body and disease models
TERRAFORMING
Connector prototype
install transnet
mag lev transportation
PST prototype
grid system in operation
Terraforming 10%
Terraforming plans
new building types
Sahara sea construction
Start grid construction
TECHNOLOGY
Multimedia center
universal portable translator
molecular transfer
Petabites storage
VTOL and HST commercial planes atomic
level chemistry
Multimedia communicator
personal flying system
small scale production system
Robotics multitasking
automated clean PTV
Cornucopia-molecular assembler
Nanotech manufacturing
molecular assembler tests
MAPPING THE FUTURE
KARDASHEV 3- Interstellar society
Year 2200
year 2200 plus
POLITICAL
Stellar federation
Alien rights and ethics
STANDARDIZATION
Interstellar standards
SECURITY
Interstellar protection
system
Advanced warfare system
POLLUTION
Terraforming technologies
SPACE
Intelligent ET civilization
interstellar travel technology
Planetary level ecosystem
artificial planet technology
Oort cloud settlements
Venus terraforming plans
Mars terraforming 10%
unmanned interstellar colonizatrion
Way mapping 80%
Ringworlds technology
EDUCATION
Universal brain
ECONOMICAL\WORK
Intelligent android robots
interstellar economy
Intellianimals economy
alien interaction
Unmanned manufacturing economy
Unmanned primary activities
ENERGY
Star power utilization
star power generation
Interstellar power sources
HEALTH
Multigeneration humans
mind\body separation
Interaction brain\web
alien interaction
Telepathy experiments
mind copies in multibodies
TERRAFORMING
Earth terraforming completed
stellar terraforming technology
Space colonies network
stellar colonies network
TECHNOLOGY
Molecular assembler advanced
mind controlled machines Von
Neumann machines
--- Damien Broderick <thespike at satx.rr.com> ha
scritto:
> At 08:00 AM 10/10/2005 -0500, Max wrote:
>
> >And *ten* years ago, in Extropy #15, the Future
> Forecasts section
> >"compared educated estimates of future
> breakthroughs by Gregory Benford,
> >Alcor's Steve Bridge, Eric Drexler, FM-2030, Mark
> Miller, Max More, and
> >Nick Szabo."
> >
> >I don't have the text handy on computer (but will
> eventually extract it
> >from old floppies). Anyone have the time and
> inclination and the issue to
> >type this up for the list?
>
> Haven't seen that, but here's something comparable,
> from THE SPIKE
> (formatting will probably go nuts in email, alas):
>
> =============
>
> Merkle still cites the August 1995 Wired poll of
> experts (chemistry
> professor Robert Birge, materials science professor
> Donald W. Brenner,
> Drexler, computer scientist J. Storrs Hall (JoSH),
> and Nobelist chemist
> Richard E. Smalley) on several aspects of a
> time-line to working nano. Here
> are their now somewhat superannuated but interesting
> estimates:
>
> Birge Brenner
> Drexler Hall Smalley
>
> Molecular Assembler: 2005 2025 2015 2010
> 2000
> Nanocomputer: 2040 2040 2017
> 2010 2100
> Cell Repair: 2030 2035 2018
> 2050 2010
> Commercial product: 2002 2000 2015 2005
> 2000
>
> # Moravec: multipurpose `universal' robots
> by 2010, with
> `humanlike competence' in cheap computers by around
> 2039--a more
> conservative estimate than Ray Kurzweil's, but
> astonishing none the less.
> Even so, he considers a Vingean singularity as
> likely within 50 years.
>
> # Kaku: no computer expert, superstring
> physicist Michio Kaku
> surveyed some 150 scientists in devised a profile of
> the next century and
> farther. He concludes broadly that from `2020 to
> 2050, the world of
> computers may well be dominated by invisible,
> networked computers which
> have the power of artificial intelligence: reason,
> speech recognition, even
> common sense'.172 In the next century or two, he
> expects humanity to
> achieve a Type I Kardeshev civilization, with
> planetary governance and
> technology able to control weather but essentially
> restricted to Earth.
> Only later, between 800 and 2500 years farther on,
> will humanity pass to
> Type II, with command of the entire solar system.
> Once the consensus dream
> of science fiction, this must now be seen as
> excessively conservative.
>
> # Vinge: as we noted at the outset, Vernor
> Vinge's part-playful,
> part-serious proposal that a singularity was
> imminent puts the date at
> around 2020, marking the end of the human era. Maybe
> as soon as 2014.
>
>
> 2.72. Michio Kaku, Visions (1998), p. 28.
>
> ========================
>
> Damien Broderick
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
___________________________________
Yahoo! Mail: gratis 1GB per i messaggi e allegati da 10MB
http://mail.yahoo.it
More information about the extropy-chat
mailing list