[extropy-chat] An advance prediction for Tuesday

[Robin Hanson]

At 06:59 PM 11/6/2006, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
>I offer the following advance prediction:
>Initially, pollsters will predict that Democrats will take the House,
>but not the Senate.
>When the actual election results are reported, it will turn out that
>Republicans kept control of the House by a significant margin.

You have assigned no probability to your forecast.   Betting markets
now give a 20% chance to the Republicans keeping the House, so if
you assign a higher probability you should expect to make money
betting on your prediction.


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323