[ExI] Wars was defeat physics
hkhenson at rogers.com
Sat Mar 14 06:32:14 UTC 2009
At 10:25 PM 3/13/2009, you wrote:
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> > [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of hkhenson
> > Iran has a decent chance of becoming a peaceful country
> > having reduced its population growth to under 1% in the past decade.
> > It is not at all clear how this happened, but it is probably
> > culturally dependant. Iran's culture is Persian, not Arabic.
> > Iran 1.87 children per woman (2008)
> > Gaza 5.19 children born/woman (2008 est.)
> > Of course a sharp economic downturn can switch on war mode,
> > i.e., Germany pre WWII.
> > Keith
>Keith, there is something about the psychology of war theory that has been
>making me squirmy for some time. It seems at times to underaccount for
>other factors leading to war.
You might be right, but I make the case that the ultimate causative
factor is the average population perception of a bleak future. You
might recall that simpler theories are to be preferred to more complex ones.
>I agree the rising population or reducing
>resources leads to war, but we have a whole mess of other stuff that comes
>into play as well, such as written history of past grievances. This is
>especially true if the written history is considered sacred writings, and
>includes specific instructions regarding how the believer should deal with
That's certainly true. But the point of the theory is that *some*
xenophobic meme or meme set will come to dominate thinking if there
is to be a war. I view religions (between wars) as seed xenophobic
memes. They are not acted on unless the population sees hard times
a-coming. There may be a genetic advantage to being able to keep
seed xenophobic memes going in your local population.
>Iran has population growth under control and is Persian. These are good and
>promising factors in their favor, yet they are ruled by an apparent madman,
>which is bad.
Yeah, but it is interesting that the madman's pronouncements about
raising the birth rate had zero effect on the Iranian women.
>If nukes are not fired in anger in the next decade I will be
>most pleasantly surprised.
Especially since in a totally pissed off state I reduced the
difficulty of making nukes by an order of magnitude or more.
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