[ExI] Cold fusion paper

spike spike at rainier66.com
Mon May 27 14:25:32 UTC 2013



>. On Behalf Of Tomaz Kristan


>.Likewise, we should be soon able to simulate any device inside a
supercomputer, before building that device for real.


Ja we can do that now.  The nuclear testing treaties of the late 80s and
early 90s were driven by the development of software which models a nuclear
warhead with sufficient accuracy that it became unnecessary to actually
build and test the designs.  Good chance the commies figured out how to do
the same, so pretty soon there was a handshake and we haven't needed to test
nukes since then.  These guys who are doing those tests now are doing actual
physical device nuke tests now do that just to get attention.  It works:
they get a lot of attention that way.


>.Some would name this a Singularity and they would be right.


Hmmm, not so you would notice.  We can model every aspect of nuclear
particles and interactions, but not yet a human brain.  The singularity
occurs when we can make a sim of a brain, one that is smart enough to design
a smarter version of itself.  If we manage to sim human level intelligence,
even if specifically in the area of software design only, that still isn't
good enough: we have over 7 billion human brains on this planet with perhaps
10 to 20 million of them occupied with software development, and none of
them are smart enough to write that sim, not even if they work together in
big smart groups.


One possibility is that such software can theoretically exist but that
humans are just not quite smart enough to write it.  This is something that
I have been pondering a lot lately, and thinking about what we need to do if
that is the case.  We need some kind of sustainability for the long run,
perhaps a few hundred to a few thousand years.  Look at us; how long have we
been debating the singularity right here?  Twenty years now?  We aren't any
closer than we were then, other than computers are faster and better
connected.  It is possible that humans are just slightly too dumb to
discover how to cause a singularity.







-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20130527/6c95a4d2/attachment.html>

More information about the extropy-chat mailing list