[ExI] Multi-millionaire funds gene sequencing to find genes for mathematical genius

[Anders Sandberg]

On 2013-11-07 20:40, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Wed, Nov 6, 2013 at 5:29 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se 
> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:
>
>     On 07/11/2013 00:23, John Grigg wrote:
>
>         No comments?  I find this absolutely fascinating, even if it
>         takes years to really bear fruit.  "Summon my mentat!"
>
>     My comment is this:
>     http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2013/10/breaking-the-mould-genetics-and-education/
>
>     Great research, worth doing - but might not in itself be useful
>     for selecting or boosting ability. What it can do is to validate
>     other tests developed by looking at the normal range. And maybe
>     hint about where to start looking in the genome and brain.
>
>
> If all it did was provide a DNA screening test for potential 
> mathematical geniuses (no small feat) it would be very useful in 
> helping to find students to focus special attention on.

Statistics doesn't work that way. Hypothetical example: if *everybody* 
in the genius group reliably shows a certain signal it might still be 
useless in practice, if 50% of the population has the signal. Yes, if 
you lack the signal you will not be a genius, but if you have it the 
probability is just a tiny fraction higher.

Since the genius group will be small it will not be possible to 
determine genomic signals very firmly - simply too few data points.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131107/062cb52d/attachment.html>