[ExI] This is one amazing robot!

[Kelly Anderson]

On Thu, Oct 24, 2013 at 10:38 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Thu, Oct 24, 2013 at 10:21:07AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
> > Eugen, your pessimism is showing again. Would you like an optimism
> > transfusion? I think I have enough for both of us.
> >
> > It was only in the 1990s that we sequenced the entire human genome. And
> now
>
> That was two decades ago. What impact on human longevity has that
> knowledge given us, so far?
>

The latest report from the Centers for Disease Control is that in 2009 the
U.S. life expectancy exceeded 78 years for the first time ever. At the turn
of the last century, this number was 47.3 years.

In fact, in the life expectancy during 10 of the past 10 years was the
highest on record.

Certainly a small part of this has come from the human genome project. But
how long did it take from Columbus discovering America to gold going back
to Portugal? Some projects are long term. Be sure the human genome project
will eventually bear fruit worth having. It is a young science.


> > look what it costs:
> > http://bit.ly/18PrQUD
> > That is a truly shocking curve.
>
> I agree it's a good thing. I wish we knew how to engineer
> genomes to build proteins to specs.
>

Me too. And we will someday.


> > We are only just now bringing anything based on that huge breakthrough to
> > the marketplace. Understanding the human genome will take time, but we
> are
> > parsing it with increasingly powerful computers. Get the protein folding
>
> Computers are good for many things, but ability to engineer organisms
> is not yet one of them. Arresting nevermind reversing aging in a living
> adult animal is a massive molecular-scale control problem. This spells
> medical nano, and we can't do even the basic MNT stuff. GMO is pretty
> weak sauce, and would only work in the yet unborn.
>

Still, it will eventually help you and I. I'm pretty sure of that.


> > algorithm down, and we'll see some real breakthroughs real fast. Yes it
> is
> > a hard problem. Can it be solved? Maybe with special hardware or
> something.
> >
> > Maybe with online games.
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foldit
> >
> > Start parsing the genome of various plants and animals, and we'll figure
> > out even more stuff.
> >
> > Medicine is making a radical jump towards being more predictably
> scientific
>
> One of my hats involves reading primary medical literature, and
> unfortunately
> I'm not seeing anything too radical there, yet.
>

No. I agree with you. But it is coming. One of the first cool things I
think we'll see is cloned teeth at the dentist.


> > and less trial and error prone. This really does make a difference. If
> you
> > can predict what a compound might do without animal trials, the things
> you
> > can do with the same amount of research money start to go up a Moore's
> Law
> > kind of curve. That's a game changer, don't you think?
>
> You sound like me, early 1990s. Virtual screening is pretty much dead now.
>

It will come back. Just needs the right algorithms and computing power.


> > Said another way, when medicine becomes engineering, won't that change
> the
> > rules of the game?
> >
> > And can't you see that medicine is evolving towards engineering?
>
> I can see that. I just don't see much relevant progress since I was
> 17. I then thought we'll need to freeze, and now it's three decades
> later. It seems that I was correct.
>

I'm not counting you out yet. Something happened young padawan to turn you
to the dark side...


> > There is no limit on the resource of human ingenuity over time in such
>
> There's one thing: we haven't got too much time to buy us more time.
>

All right, we'll all die soon... might as well party like rock stars now.


> > matters. This isn't a limited resource like sweet crude. Just walk into
> the
> > light Eugen!
>
> Optimism is considered dangerous to your health.
>

Uh, quite the opposite.
http://www.webmd.com/balance/news/20041101/optimism-may-help-you-live-longer

I know WebMD isn't exactly nature, but it's pretty nice.

-Kelly
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