[ExI] Two Envelope Paradox
atymes at gmail.com
Mon Jul 28 06:45:47 UTC 2014
As you point out, the paradox applies no matter which envelope you hold.
No matter what you do, unless you actually have information about whether
your envelope probably has the larger or smaller amount, switching and not
switching are both equally likely to get each end result.
That said, it might be possible to cheat just a little bit. If the $20 is
a single bill, then unless there's indication that the other envelope holds
just a single object (which would be a $10 bill, there being no $40 bills),
it might be a bit more likely the other envelope holds $40. Reasoning: $20
bills are more common than $10 bills - among other things, they're the
standard that ATMs yield.
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