[ExI] Another projected AI timeline

[Adrian Tymes]

Quoted with permission from Jim Spohrer, director of IBM's Cognitive
Systems Institute.  (It came up when he and I were talking, and I figured
it would be of interest to this list.)

I'm trying to get his thoughts on what would be needed to get the debater
he has to be able to invent - to understand the topic being discussed well
enough to come up with original observations and suggest
improvements...say, to its own architecture.

===
Here is what I tell students....

... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:

        (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40%
accuracy;
                - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90%
accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope")
                - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers
are already existing in the text explicitly
                - debater is an example of where we would like to get to
though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY
                - more about the ambitions at  http://cognitive-science.info

        (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any
textbooks and produce a Q&A system
                - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student
performance on questions

        (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance
on questions

        (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000
                - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's
brain power (at 20W power)

        (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them
in many ways better than they know themselves
                 - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you
have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and
memory aid, etc.

        (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work
for them"
                - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce
is a course taught at university

In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era...

In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student
level performance on questions in textbook....

In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy
to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook....

        http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2

By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in
full force.

Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength
and super-safety features:



Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information
to  us - and what we know and our goals.

Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research
team....

The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for
the answer - energy, water, food, wellness -  and note especially the
wellness suit at the end:

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL

Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped
and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you
have the patience to watch.
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