[ExI] Another projected AI timeline

[Anders Sandberg]

I like the point that it takes about two generations to get to the full 
force of the cognitive era. If there is no AGI I think this is entirely 
correct. This era will be about one generation after the full force of 
global social media becomes truly mature.

It is an interesting exercise to think about what ubiquitous college 
level QA systems could do. Especially since topics could be user-defined 
rather than standard topics, and the seed data things like one's own 
social media past.



On 2015-11-17 08:51, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> Quoted with permission from Jim Spohrer, director of IBM's Cognitive 
> Systems Institute.  (It came up when he and I were talking, and I 
> figured it would be of interest to this list.)
>
> I'm trying to get his thoughts on what would be needed to get the 
> debater he has to be able to invent - to understand the topic being 
> discussed well enough to come up with original observations and 
> suggest improvements...say, to its own architecture.
>
> ===
> Here is what I tell students....
>
> ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:
>
>         (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 
> 40% accuracy;
>       - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% 
> accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope")
>       - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are 
> already existing in the text explicitly
>       - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though 
> in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY
>       - more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info 
> <http://cognitive-science.info/>
>
>         (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any 
> textbooks and produce a Q&A system
>       - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student 
> performance on questions
>
>         (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty 
> performance on questions
>
>         (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000
>       - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain 
> power (at 20W power)
>
>         (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows 
> them in many ways better than they know themselves
>        - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have 
> ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and 
> memory aid, etc.
>
>         (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that 
> "work for them"
>       - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a 
> course taught at university
>
> In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era...
>
> In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average 
> student level performance on questions in textbook....
>
> In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... 
> easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in 
> textbook....
>
> http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2
>
> By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be 
> in full force.
>
> Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode 
> super-strength and super-safety features:
>
>
>
> Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the 
> information to  us - and what we know and our goals.
>
> Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research 
> team....
>
> The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video 
> for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness -  and note especially 
> the wellness suit at the end:
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL
>
> Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over 
> hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really 
> good if you have the patience to watch.
>
>
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-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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