[ExI] bar sinister gets more than you, was:... gets more than you do

[William Flynn Wallace]

noninformative priors:  is that like committing crimes or marriages without
learning anything from from them?

bill w

On Sun, Nov 22, 2015 at 1:02 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2015-11-22 04:44, spike wrote:
>
>
> It occurred to me that without some kind of indication of a range of
> possible amounts in the vault, this is any ordinary trivial guessing game.
> But if we assume the amount of money in the vault is somewhere between 0
> and 6,283,185 dollars with each amount being equally probable, the problem
> becomes a calculation.
>
>
> I actually liked the undefined nature of the amount. Thinking about things
> that could have any order of magnitude brings up really cool issues of
> noninformative priors.
>
> The thing reminds me of the problem of doing a Bayesian analysis of the
> German tank problem when you have only one tank (it came up during I
> lecture I gave last week).
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem
> Using a noninformative prior there will not work for one tank. If you have
> a known upper limit Omega on how many tanks there could be, then you can
> assume the actual number is uniform between 1 and Omega and do a
> calculation, ending up with an estimate.
>
> In your lovely problem having an upper limit Omega makes things easier but
> less interesting.
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
>
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