[ExI] bar sinister gets more than you, was:... gets more than you do

[spike]

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Anders Sandberg
Sent: Saturday, November 21, 2015 11:02 PM
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Subject: Re: [ExI] bar sinister gets more than you, was:... gets more than
you do

 

On 2015-11-22 04:44, spike wrote:



 

It occurred to me that without some kind of indication of a range of
possible amounts in the vault, this is any ordinary trivial guessing game.
But if we assume the amount of money in the vault is somewhere between 0 and
6,283,185 dollars with each amount being equally probable, the problem
becomes a calculation.


I actually liked the undefined nature of the amount. Thinking about things
that could have any order of magnitude brings up really cool issues of
noninformative priors.In your lovely problem having an upper limit Omega
makes things easier but less interesting. 



-- 
Anders Sandberg
 
 
 
 
No problem, we can branch this.  The unlimited version will be called the
Anders branch.  Anders do feel free to clarify or elaborate on your branch.
Until then, my bid on the Anders branch of the Potter Deal is 1E10 bucks.
 
Clarification on the Spike branch regarding nonlinearities please.  If a
windfall 10k were to fall into your lap, it would make your day.  If 10
million falls into your lap, it would make your day even more of course, but
not a thousand times more.  The difference between 10M and ten million ten
thousand dollars is practically negligible in its day-making potential, even
though the same delta made your hypothetical day in the first instance.
This is an example of a non-linearity I wish to have you ignore for this
thought experiment.  The game is to maximize your take and simultaneously
minimize the evil Mr. Potter's winnings, ignoring other considerations.
Think like a mathematician for this exercise, for hypothetical money is only
that.
 
The notion of nonlinearities gave me an insight.  To us proles, a windfall
gain of ten bucks is cool but a windfall gain of 20 bucks is twice as good
because we are down in the linear range.  Once we get up in the thin air
(well, thin to me anyway) of ten million bucks, we are way out of the linear
range.  You and I can scarcely distinguish the day-making potential of 10
million vs 10,010,000 dollars.  Out there, we are just sinful rich.  The
good kind of sinful rich, the kind worth going to hell for eternity kind of
rich, either number.
 
Here is the insight, which might already have a name but I don't know what
it is, a paradox of sorts.  You and I are way out in the nonlinear range at
10 million bucks, but a big corporation is not.  To some big company such as
an insurance biggie, there is a difference between ten million and
10,010,000, and it is pretty similar the difference between 0 and 10k.  
 
Insight: the fact that out there in the seven digit numbers, we are in the
nonlinearities but big corporations are in the linear range allows them to
enter into deals which both parties may enter a deal which favors the big
guy, yet both parties benefit.
 
Example, the insurance company owes you 10 million bucks, but you need to go
to court to prove your case.  It is a strong one you will likely win, but
the insurance guy offers to write a check for 5 million today and go away,
no questions asked.  You think OK I can be rich today or even more rich in
perhaps a couple years, but both riches are out in the nonlinearities, OK
sure 5 million today.  Both parties know it is a terrible deal for the
prole, both know the big evil insurance company won that negotiation, but
both parties enter it willingly and more or less satisfied (they more, you
less.)
 
This is Spike's paradox in the Potter problem.  Use it freely.
 
Anders, I still want your bid in the 10M version of the Potter problem.  In
return I thought of a scheme for determining V in the Anders branch, so
Potter players, do make two bids please.  You may change your bid up to
Tuesday afternoon.
 
My bids:  Spike branch:  3,333,333 bucks, Anders branch:  1E10 bucks.
 
spike
 
 
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