[ExI] Global catastrophic risk report

spike spike66 at att.net
Sun May 1 17:32:51 UTC 2016



From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Anders Sandberg
Sent: Sunday, May 01, 2016 10:16 AM
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Subject: Re: [ExI] Global catastrophic risk report


On 2016-05-01 18:36, spike wrote:


There must be ways to cash in on this belief by betting against it, by
betting on climate non-change.

>.If you think climate change is overblown, you should presumably expect the
insurance business to be too cautious, and you could presumably make good
money (in expectation) through long-term, widely distributed cat bonds. --
Anders Sandberg



Ja there is that.


I find it most striking the catastrophic failure in translating the
scientific consensus on climate change with the public perception of climate
change.  For instance, my best guess on scientific consensus is about 2C in
the next century.  Is that about the consensus now?  This would be
accompanied by about a 20 cm rise in sea level?  Anyone know the best
estimate of the models?


If you ask especially the younger set, the consensus will be waaaay more and
faster change.  So there is an enormous disparity in public perception and
the scientific community, with the disparity getting dramatically larger as
you get younger than currently college age.


It would be interesting to find a way to average the results (a direct
average doesn't help, since the one uninformed yahoo guessing a meter sea
level change swamps the 99 guessing 1 cm.)  Also, there is a time element.
Perhaps the best we can do then is to take the sea level change per year
average and temperature change per year estimated by Science Inc, compare to
the general public perception average for both, see how we can make money on
the spread.



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