[ExI] Model uncertainty (Was: LIGO)

[spike]

>.On Behalf Of Anders
Subject: [ExI] Model uncertainty (Was: LIGO)

 

On 2016-11-09 19:51, William Flynn Wallace wrote:



I am still trying to get my head around that: how could we have seen two
crazy-unlikely events in just a few weeks?  My view of the cosmos must be
serious flawed.  COOL!

This expresses my feeling exactly.  I think somewhere along the line I lost
contact with the human race and am seriously out of contact with reality.  I
am still stunned.  


>.In fact, this is an interesting development. Pollsters and information
markets missed the UK election, Brexit and the US election. The models are
clearly wrong.   Dr Anders Sandberg

 

 

 

Anders I can explain this I think.  This crazy election cycle was the first
time in my life it really felt dangerous to express one's political views.
We saw people attacked for wearing Trump hats and T-shirts.  Right here in
San Jose, there was a Trump rally which was attacked:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCx3ov55tUw

 

The attack on the rally was a direct attack on free speech.  It became
dangerous to be anything other than a Trump adversary.

 

With that in mind, what do you do if someone calls wanting to do a political
poll?  You have no idea who is on the other end (they have their number
blocked) but they know who you are, since they just called you.  With a
phone number, they can get an address.  With an address, they can come for a
visit.  If they come for a visit, you might die.  Nowthen, shall we continue
our poll?

 

I made it clear enough online that I was a Johnson supporter, but I wouldn't
tell any anonymous pollster that.  I wouldn't tell them anything.  I told
them right up front why I wouldn't tell them anything.  I don't know how
that was recorded in their polls.

 

I hope we return to a time when it is safe to have political views.  In the
meantime, the polls are unreliable.

 

That being said, I am astonished I haven't heard anyone suggest the commies
hacked the voting machines.  So I will be the first to suggest it.  Those
damn things just hafta go.  What if this election had been a cliffhanger and
we learned then that the machines had been hacked?  How would we do a
recount?  And once we learned the paperless machine votes cannot be
recounted (so they can't be counted at all) and only the paper votes count,
then how do we argue the election was legitimate?  What if we did a recount
using only paper votes and it reversed the result?  Oh that could be
trouble.

 

spike

 

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