[ExI] To Aaronson Trump

spike spike66 at att.net
Mon Sep 5 14:32:28 UTC 2016



From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Monday, September 05, 2016 7:22 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: [ExI] To Aaronson Trump


John K Clark Says: 
Comment #71  <http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2887#comment-1317371> September 4th, 2016 at 9:32 pm

In the 2012 presidential election Nate Silver correctly predicted how every state would go, and as of today he says Trump has a 30.9% chance of taking command of the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet in 137 days. That terrifies me; if I played Russian Roulette I’d only have a 16.6% chance of losing.

 <http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus> http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus



So do we sit around being terrified, or do we influence congress to secure the football, do something which would actually solve the problem rather than choose which flavor of problem we wish to face?

Nate Silver uses only polls.  He has never done a poll in which one candidate faced a looming email dump, nor is he dealing with Friday’s FBI report, in which one of the candidates is STILL telling a blatantly self-contradictory story, one which gets crazier sounding with each new version.

Hear the footsteps John.  They are getting louder every day.



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